THE POLITICS OF POWER: WHY FUBARA’S BATTLE WAS LOST BEFORE IT BEGAN
Politics is not driven by emotions or moral expectations; it is a game of power, strategy, and influence. Those who assume that fairness or justice will dictate political outcomes are often the first to be swept aside. In Nigeria, political survival is not determined by sentiment but by an understanding of the system, alliances, and timing.
The ongoing battle in Rivers State between Governor Siminalayi Fubara and his predecessor, Nyesom Wike, is not about governance or the welfare of the people. It is a classic struggle for control, a familiar scenario in Nigerian politics where political godfathers and their protégés clash over power structures. Those who fail to grasp the realities of this game often end up as casualties. It is a script that has played out not only in Nigeria but across Africa, where political mentorship often turns into a struggle for dominance.
In Kenya, William Ruto rose to power with the backing of Uhuru Kenyatta, but their relationship soured when Kenyatta attempted to install Raila Odinga as his preferred successor. Ruto, however, had secured his grassroots support and fought back, eventually winning the presidency. In Zambia, Levy Mwanawasa was handpicked by Frederick Chiluba, only to turn against him after assuming office, launching an anti-corruption probe that targeted Chiluba himself. South Africa saw a similar pattern when Thabo Mbeki fell out with Jacob Zuma, leading to Mbeki’s forced resignation from office.
In the complex web of Nigerian politics, certain unwritten rules dictate the fate of politicians. Firstly, unshakeable loyalty to one’s political benefactor (godfather) is crucial, especially in the first term. Those who rise to power through a political godfather must understand that their independence can not be immediate. Secondly, consolidation of power should precede any confrontation. A leader who does not secure full control of political structures before challenging the establishment is setting himself up for failure. Lastly, overestimating one’s influence is a fatal mistake. Power is fluid, and miscalculations often lead to political extinction.
Fubara ignored these fundamental principles. His attempt to assert independence from Wike was premature and lacked the necessary groundwork. Nigerian political history is filled with similar stories. Governor Akinwunmi Ambode in Lagos State failed to navigate his relationship with Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu, now PBAT, and was denied a second term. Peter Obi had to secure the blessing of his mentor, Lieutenant Colonel Chukwuemeka Ojukwu, of blessed memory before consolidating his power in Anambra State. Governor Ifeanyi Okowa of Delta State understood the importance of patience, ensuring his second-term security before taking control. Even in Ghana, Nana Akufo-Addo had to realign his strategy after initial political setbacks before ultimately securing the presidency.
Wike, on the other hand, is a master strategist. His influence extends beyond Rivers State, backed by control over the state legislature, security agencies, and deep financial resources. His position as a federal minister further strengthens his hold on the political terrain. He plays the real power game, one that is decided in private negotiations, not public debates. Wike anticipated resistance and took preemptive measures, ensuring that any challenge against him would be futile. His approach is reminiscent of how Jacob Zuma outmanoeuvred Mbeki in South Africa or how Ruto distanced himself from Kenyatta without losing political ground.
Fubara’s failure was not just about his ambition but his lack of preparation. He engaged in a battle without securing legislative backing, control over security forces, or financial independence. In Nigerian politics, power is not taken on impulse; it is gradually built. The system does not reward those who rush into conflicts unprepared. This is a lesson seen repeatedly across Africa. Mwanawasa in Zambia succeeded because he built a strong base before turning against Chiluba. Ambode in Lagos failed because he did not consolidate his power before losing Tinubu’s backing.
The principle of timing is evident throughout history, including biblical references. King David did not ascend the throne through immediate confrontation; he waited, built alliances, and struck at the right moment. Joseph’s rise to power in Egypt was not instant; it was a product of patience and strategic positioning. Politics follows the same principle; those who move too soon often fail before their time.
The reality of Nigerian politics is harsh. It is a high-stakes contest where missteps can lead to political irrelevance. Those who lack foresight find themselves quickly abandoned. Even former allies shift loyalties when power dynamics change. In Rivers State, Fubara’s miscalculation has placed him in a vulnerable position, and without a swift reassessment of his strategy, he risks being completely sidelined. His story is no different from that of many African leaders who assumed power meant freedom, only to realize too late that true control is earned, not given.
Potential alone is not enough to succeed in politics. Wisdom, patience, and strategic manoeuvring determine who survives. Fubara’s struggle serves as a lesson. Politics is never about who is right or wrong. It is about understanding the game and playing it better and to the fullest.
*Olowofoyekun Temitope Dadeowo Writes From Akure, Ondo State*
