SAM OGUNMUSI, DIRECTOR NEW MEDIA, ONDO PDP GUBERNATORIAL CAMPAIGN COUNCIL: GOD’S FAVOUR OR LUCK IN ONDO POLITICS?

The debate between *luck* and *favour* in the context of the 2024 Ondo State gubernatorial election, featuring Lucky Orimisan Ayedatiwa of the APC and Alfred Agboola Ajayi of the PDP, must be seen through a nuanced political lens. While Sam Ogunmusi in his article argued that Ondo State needs *favour* rather than *luck* for its leadership, a deeper analysis shows that in politics, *luck* often plays a far more critical role than divine favour, particularly when it comes to electoral victories.

Politically, luck has long been recognised as a significant force, shaping the careers of political leaders who may not have otherwise succeeded purely on merit or preparation. Political philosophers like Niccolò Machiavelli emphasised the unpredictable element of *fortuna*—often translated as *luck*—in determining success. In his view, while skill and capability are important, outcomes are often driven by luck, which allows political leaders to seize opportunities that arise unexpectedly.

The Bible, though not explicit about *luck*, contains numerous instances where events unfold unpredictably, delivering unexpected success to individuals. Ecclesiastes 9:11 reminds us that “the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, nor does food come to the wise… but time and chance happen to them all.” In politics, this idea resonates deeply, as elections are often won not just by the most favoured candidates but by those who find themselves in the right place at the right time. *Luck*, in this sense, aligns more with the unpredictable opportunities that arise in the political arena, far more than the notion of divine *favour* alone.

In the current political landscape of Nigeria, luck has played a defining role. In 2010, Goodluck Jonathan, whose rise to the presidency was often seen as politically fortunate, benefited from the sudden illness and death of his predecessor, President Yar’Adua. His presidency was a product of constitutional order and fortuitous timing, not merely divine favour. Similarly, in Western politics, the election of Barack Obama in 2008, while certainly supported by his personal charisma, was also influenced by the economic crisis that shifted public sentiment in his favour. Such events underscore the role of luck in elevating leaders who might not have had an immediate path to power.

Looking specifically at the 2024 gubernatorial election in Ondo State, it is critical to recognise that the political landscape heavily favours the APC. At both the federal and state levels, the APC holds significant power. The party controls the structures of government, from local governance to the executive branches, making it an overwhelming political force. This dominance can be understood as part of the political luck Ayedatiwa enjoys—he is part of a party that not only governs at the state level but also controls the federal government. In contrast, the PDP lacks any real political structure in Ondo, a fact that severely hampers their capacity to influence the election meaningfully. His Excellency Alfred Agboola Ajayi and his running mate, Festus Akingbaso, do not have the institutional support or the organisational foundation that Ayedatiwa enjoys under the APC.

The presence of APC’s firm grip on both state and federal power underscores how *luck* manifests in the political realm. Ayedatiwa’s candidacy benefits from this broader political context. The support of the ruling party, the resources at their disposal, and the influence over governmental structures all tilt the scales in his favour. This is not a question of divine *favour* in the moral sense but the kind of *luck* that political thinkers like Machiavelli emphasised—being positioned in a moment where the uncontrollable forces of circumstance align to secure victory.

It is crucial to remember that in politics, the unpredictable often overrides the predictable. Even with great credentials, history shows that political power is won and maintained as much through luck as through favour. As Ecclesiastes 9:11 reminds us, time and chance shape the destinies of leaders, not just their righteousness or perceived favour. The 2024 Ondo election will likely be no different, with luck playing an essential role in determining who will govern next.

*Coordinator And Founder; AYEDATIWA IMAGE MAKERS ( AIM ) SAY NO TO ANTI-PARTY*

*TOPE LIBERTY CARES*