Political Chess in Nigeria: Tinubu’s Masterstroke Against the Opposition
Teekay Adams
Writes for Adeleke Reporters Online News
July 24th, 2025
4PM
The Nigerian political landscape is currently witnessing a high-stakes power play, with opposition forces mobilizing to unseat President Bola Tinubu by any means necessary. However, what they fail to realize is that they are dealing with a seasoned strategist a man who has spent decades mastering the art of political chess. Tinubu’s approach is not one of impulsive reaction but of meticulous calculation, studying the opposition’s moves, and striking at the most opportune moment.
The Opposition’s Desperation vs. Tinubu’s Strategy
Opposition parties, still reeling from their 2023 electoral defeat, have been plotting to weaken Tinubu’s grip on power through propaganda, economic sabotage, and coalition-building. However, Tinubu, a veteran of political warfare, understands that the best defense is a strong offense. His recent moves within the All Progressives Congress (APC) and across Nigeria’s geopolitical zones demonstrate a leader consolidating power while the opposition scrambles for relevance.
The APC NEC Meeting: A Masterstroke
The choice of Prof. Nentawe Yushau as the new APC National Chairman by the National Working Committee today is a strategic move designed to tackle the high voter turnout for the opposition Labour Party (LP) candidate, Peter Obi, who gained significant votes from Nigeria’s Christian minorities. The religious sentiments surrounding the Muslim-Muslim ticket played a major role in the 2023 elections, but Tinubu’s camp is determined to douse that notion and reposition the narrative.
The APC aims to make it clear that the Muslim-Muslim ticket was never a religious mission but a political strategy one that has worked and is now focused on repositioning Nigeria’s economy.
Southwest Reclamation:
Lagos as a Case Study
In the Southwest, particularly in Tinubu’s stronghold of Lagos, the Labour Party’s surprising performance in the 2023 presidential election, where Obi defeated Tinubu, sent shockwaves through the APC. However, the narrative has since changed.
The recent local government elections in Lagos saw the APC completely dominate, with the opposition securing only one councillorship seat out of 377 a clear indication that the Southwest is back in the APC’s grip. Lagos and the wider Southwest will not allow anyone to deceive them with sentimental politics to deny Tinubu the opportunity to complete his 8-year term. The region is determined to ensure that power remains in the South, preventing any northern interference that could cut short their rightful tenure.
South-South Solidarity:
Keeping Power in the South
The South-South region has also shown readiness to support Tinubu, ensuring that power remains in the South to guarantee continuity in major developmental projects. A change in government could disrupt critical infrastructure and economic plans, and the South-South is strategically aligning with Tinubu to prevent any such disruptions.
The Broader Political Chessboard
1. VP Shettima & the Northeast Gambit
With Vice President Kashim Shettima firmly holding the Northeast, Atiku Abubakar’s political influence is being systematically eroded. Shettima’s presence ensures that the PDP’s stronghold is no longer a guaranteed bloc.
2. South-South Takeover The APC’s increasing dominance in the South-South, particularly with key defections and strategic appointments, means the PDP’s traditional stronghold is slipping away.
3. Northwest Chess Game With Rabiu Kwankwaso’s closeness to the president NNPP’s support via kwankwaso’s red cap movement and APC governors like Uba Sani (Kaduna) and Dikko Radda (Katsina) holding firm, the Northwest remains a battleground where Tinubu’s forces are gaining ground.
4. Southeast Inroads
Though the Southeast remains largely PDP/LP territory, Tinubu’s subtle engagements such as appointing Igbo sons into key positions and infrastructural promises are slowly changing the narrative.
Economic Realities:
The Silent Game-Changer
While the opposition focuses on political maneuvering, Tinubu’s economic policies are gradually yielding results:
– Food Prices Dropping The recent decline in food prices is easing public frustration.
– Fuel Prices Stabilizing With the Dangote Refinery operational and modular refineries coming onstream, petrol prices are expected to fall further.
– Foreign Exchange Gains The Naira’s gradual recovery against the dollar is restoring confidence in the economy.
If these trends continue, by 2027, the average Nigerian voter will care less about political rhetoric and more about tangible improvements—making APC’s victory almost inevitable.
The Opposition’s Looming Collapse
The so-called “mega coalition” against Tinubu is already showing cracks. Without a unified front, the opposition risks fragmenting into smaller, ineffective factions. Meanwhile, Tinubu’s APC is tightening its grip, ensuring that every move against him only strengthens his position.
Conclusion: Tinubu’s Endgame
President Tinubu is playing a long game, and his opponents are falling right into his trap. While they expend energy on plots and alliances, he is methodically dismantling their strongholds, stabilizing the economy, and positioning the APC for an even greater victory in 2027.
Nigeria is on the cusp of real transformation, and Tinubu—the grandmaster of Nigerian politics—is just getting started. The opposition should brace itself; the game has only just begun, and the checkmate is inevitable.
Final Verdict:2027 is APC’s to lose, and Tinubu is ensuring they won’t.
