The political instability resulting from the coup in Niger Republic could lead to a spillover of security related issues both in Niger and in Nigeria if handled outside of diplomatic approach.
Niger is a land locked country strategically located and sharing border with about eight states in northern Nigeria stretching and stretching over a thousand kilometers along the border line.
With her vast expanse of land and huge deposit of mineral resources especially Uranium makes it very attractive to various interests who had over time exploited these resources for their economic benefits while the country and the people remain in abject poverty.
Before looking at the spill over effect of possible military invasion, we must realize that Niger has been our most reliable ally in the fight against insurgents on various fronts in nirthern Nigeria. In addition to not forgetting the socio-economic affinity and cultural ties between northern Nigeria and Niger, military action will be tantamount to adding on the suffering of over 70% of Nigeriens who had been living in abject poverty from the time immemorial.
Nigeria should consider the following possible consequences should military action remains the only option to restoring democratic governance in Niger Republic.
1. Security Concerns: The political instability resulting from the coup in Niger Republic could lead to a spillover of violence and insecurity across the border into Nigeria. This could provide an opportunity for extremist groups, such as Boko Haram and ISWAP, to exploit the situation and intensify their activities. The increased threat from these groups could disrupt peace and security in Nigeria, particularly in the northeastern regions.
2. Refugee Influx: If the political situation in Niger Republic deteriorates further, there is a possibility of an influx of refugees into Nigeria. Niger Republic has experienced internal conflicts and displacement in the past, and a coup could exacerbate these issues. Nigeria already hosts a significant number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) from its own conflicts, and an additional influx of refugees would strain resources and infrastructure, affecting access to basic services.
3. Regional Instability: Nigeria plays a crucial role in regional stability within West Africa. Any political instability in neighboring countries, such as Niger Republic, can have a destabilizing effect on the region as a whole. The success and consolidation of a coup in Niger Republic may embolden similar attempts in other neighboring countries, leading to a domino effect of political instability and power struggles.
4. Diplomatic Challenges: Nigeria’s response to the coup in Niger Republic will have implications for its diplomatic relations with other countries and international organizations. Nigeria, as a regional power, is expected to uphold democratic values and advocate for stability in the region. If the coup is allowed to prosper without condemnation or efforts to restore democratic governance, Nigeria’s credibility could be at stake, potentially impacting its relationships with regional and international partners.
To address these dangers, Nigeria should continue to work closely with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and other organization to address the immediate fallout of the coup and support efforts to restore democratic governance in Niger Republic. Strengthening border security and intelligence cooperation to prevent the infiltration of extremist groups will be crucial. Nigeria should also enhance its capacity to handle potential refugee influxes and collaborate with international partners to provide humanitarian assistance. Diplomatically, Nigeria should engage in active dialogue with other countries and organizations to articulate its concerns and advocate for a peaceful resolution in Niger Republic.
While the specific impact of the coup on Nigeria’s oil industry may not be a direct concern, the broader consequences of political instability and security threats can still have significant implications for Nigeria’s stability, economy, and regional influence.
