Ahead 2027: Why opposition can’t upstage ruling party
The sight was not just bewildering it was also shocking. Dateline was Thursday, May 29, 2003. Venue was Aso Rock Presidential Villa. It was the cake-cutting ceremony to celebrate the second term victory and second swearing-in ceremony of then President Matthew Okikiolakan Aremu Olusegun Obasanjo. Joining Obasanjo to cut the celebration cake were two governors and some party leaders of the supposed opposition All Peoples Party, APP (which later became All Nigeria Peoples Party, ANPP, before a faction of it morphed into General Muhammadu Buhari’s Congress for Progressive Change, CPC.
By this time, the only other opposition party, the Alliance for Democracy, AD, had lost all but one of its six governors in the South-West geo-political zone, which was its stronghold. Apart from Governor Bola Tinubu of Lagos State, who survived through his grit, determination and an insider dealing of a leader of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, the other five bit the political dust. Adebayo Adefarati of Ondo State, Lam Adeshina of Oyo State, Niyi Adebayo of Ekiti State, Segun Osoba of Ogun State, and Bisi Akande of Osun State, all lost the governorship election of that year. Through subterfuge, reliance on ethno-cultural bias, alleged manipulation of election results, and strategic deception, Obasanjo was able to bulldoze his way through and get PDP to take over the five states
In fact, according to a February 25, 2004 Report extracted from the 2001-2009 Archive of the US State Department, “the elections (of 2003) also resulted in the ruling PDP winning 70 percent of the seats in the national legislature and 75 percent of the state governorship.” That was how strong the PDP was.
Prior to the bizarre events of May 2003, and under the guise of forming a Government of National Unity, GNU, Obasanjo, upon assuming office in 1999, rewarded the National Chairman of the APP, Senator Mahmud Waziri, with appointment as his Presidential Adviser on Inter-Party Affairs. Meanwhile, Obasanjo had two other Presidential Advisers on National Assembly Matters and another one on Political Affairs. So, what was the brief of Waziri, if not to use him as an instrument of destabilisation of the APP?
In that same 1999, for AD, Obasanjo reached for and appointed one of the leaders of Afenifere and AD, late Chief James Ajibola Idowu Ige (Bola Ige), SAN, as minister of power. He then grabbed Dupe Adelaja, daughter of Afenifere and National Democratic Coalition, NADECO, Leader, Pa Abraham Aderibigbe Adesanya, and appointed her as Minister of State, Defence. All these happened between 1999 and 2003.
So, how did these two opposition parties disappear from the political firmament – or as they would love to delude themselves, become a shapeless shadow? It is because those who are supposed to be in the opposition are afflicted with a cocktail of malaise that renders them both toothless and irrelevant over time. This report has codified them into 10.
QUOTES
The spirit of Mammon is in bed with many Nigerian politicians. Money is like an elixir for the politician because the primary reason why many of them go into politics is to make money
Due to the fickle and fluid state of affairs, many do not have the stamina to stand against the might of the ruling party. Blackmail, intimidation, abuse of court processes and other such unholy acts are used to whip opposition politicians in line
Because of loss of faith in the ability of the EMB to be above board, opposition politicians seek shelter in the ruling party where they are almost always certain to win and return to office
In his seminal work of February, 2002, titled: ‘Viable Party System As Basis Of Democracy’, Professor Omo Omoruyi of the famed Centre for Democratic Studies, CDS, pricked the conscience. He posited: “The notion of the deep-seated uncertainty (about Nigeria) has to do with the relationship between the past, the present and the future. When it affects a country, it can be a severe crisis. This is the problem in Nigeria today. I shall try to apply the concept of deep-seated uncertainty to three areas of Nigerian political life: The lingering political problems; the declining faith in the political order; and the notion of winners and losers.”
Socio-economic contradictions
In the course of doing this report, it was discovered that the social and economic contradictions inherent in Nigeria’s political sphere make it difficult, if not impossible, for opposition to thrive with a view to making the progressive change that should dominate conversations before and after the fact.
In a political system that is neo-patrimonial and largely based on links of connections and patronage between political stakeholders and stockholders, delinking abhorrent behavioural instincts from activities on the political terrain becomes difficult.
that outlines offices and schedules. It is about having an entity that is firm and grounded on norms and values that ideas are hoisted on. It is also about adherence to organisational protocol. It is this lack of accountable structure that leads to the collapse of the opposition parties. It is this same absence of sustainable party structure that makes an individual or just a handful of them to hijack the affairs of a political party and threaten to destroy it, even while already in bed with the ruling party.
8.Absence of internal party democracy
Stemming from the above, there is a discount of internal democracy in political parties in Nigeria. It is an affliction and it runs through all the parties. The consequence of this is that politicians of quintessential persona who espouse virtues of decency and uprightness are thrown aside for others who have the means or connection. Even party constitution and electoral guidelines put together by the parties are not adhered to. This leads to the emergence of candidates who do not have serious bonding to the parties, hence they easily migrate to the ruling party once they win elections. In fact, some politicians in ruling parties, having lost tickets, buy their way into opposition parties, clinch tickets, win elections and jump right back to the ruling party, thereby weakening the base of the so-called opposition.
9.State capture by ruling party leaders
Another major contributing factor to the weakening of the opposition is the issue of state capture by the ruling party operatives. What happens is that every aspect of government and its institutions is compromised to work for and be subservient to the ruling party. The judiciary, legislature, intelligence services, senior civil servants, et al become malleable to the dictates of the ruling party or what is known as the cabal around the presidency. Because of the fickle and fluid state of affairs, many do not have the stamina to stand against the might of the ruling party. Blackmail, intimidation, abuse of court processes and other such unholy acts are used to whip opposition politicians in line. This asphyxiates the political space where the opposition wants to play and, therefore, renders discombobulate, whatever meaningful attempts at raising the bar of opposition against the ruling party.
10.Loss of faith electoral umpire
The biggest elephant in the room is the electoral umpire and its shenanigans. Were the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, above board in its functions, politicians generally (and not just opposition) would be confident in their capacity to mobilise, go into the field and contest without fear of being rigged out. The February 25, 2004 Report extracted from the 2001-2009 Archive of the US State Department, that said “the elections (of 2003) also resulted in the ruling PDP winning 70 percent of the seats in the national legislature and 75 percent of the state governorship,” was a mere reference to the power of rigging carried out by the PDP with the connivance of INEC. Today’s APC and INEC are in bed, just as PDP was. But nothing lasts forever. Because of the electoral process that condones cheating, use of money to compromise officials and might of the ruling party to rig at will in collusion with the election management body, opposition politicians drift to the ruling party where they are sure to exploit the benefits of bandwagon. Because of loss of faith in the ability of the EMB to be above board, opposition politicians seek shelter in the ruling party where they are almost always certain to win and return to office. As a former chairman of APC unashamedly once said, “once you join our party, all sins are forgiven.”
